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paolo (#)


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Subject: Hypothetical 4

Hypothetical scenario:
1. the usa are not be able to conquer Baghdad in a few weeks but they have to face a strong opposition in urban fight;
2. against any prediction the war lasts months;
3. the coalition is not able to find Hussein (as they have not found Bin Laden this seems possible);
4. the war causes many casualties from both sides (maybe with CNN showing images of innocents slaughtered by the coalition soldiers);
5. the brent goes up to 60-70$;
6. new terrorist attacks in GB, USA, Israel and other countries;
7. the coalition seeks UN help to end this mess.

zoobrenok (#)


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everybody scared of 1

two is not an issue -- because it depends on your definition of 'war' -- organized forces of iraq will be destroyed fast, but there could be 'militant' type of combat - similar to what USSR had in Afganistan when they controlled entire country and yet were not safe

now they say that 3 is not an issue because where he is does not change their plans

four also not an issue: us casualties will be high only in case of 2 or in case of chemical or biological attack, but it seems like if saddam does it, last pease protestor will be first to vollunteer to serve in army. i don't think slaughtering of innocent will be an issue today: army took care of it as they are scared of this problem more then they scared of nuke

5 -- what exactly will it change? plus Saudi promised to keep price on 'moderate' levels (like if i trust them)

we were already warned about 6

and seven will never take place -- they did not ask for help in vietnam, did they?

paolo (#)


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two is an issue as I define war as in point 1.

three is an issue as the biggest army and intelligence in the world would not been able to check that king.

four is an issue for me, even if I don't have brothers or relatives or friend fighting there, it will always be an issue. And we also have example of slaughtering of innocent from very recent wars (Grdelica, during the kossovo war).

five will change things in you being poorer, us economy being slower and weaker etc.

komei (#)


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1 and 2 possible but probably unlikely.

3, 4, 5, 6 very certain.

7 - probable - the UN has had to clear up US mess many times before.

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